At The Eighth Pole

Free Replays for CDSN

2006-09-22T18:47:00.000-04:00

While the NTRA might be a bunch of fools, at least some tracks hire smart people. When it comes to fan friendly tracks. Churchill Downs announced today that free replays will be readily available on its website for their tracks. Hollywood is already available over at Calracing.com, but this deal will allow us to get replays for Churchill, Arlington and Calder.

Now CDSN, all you have to do is lower your takeout.
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From the CDSN Press Release
Online video replays of our races have long been one of the top requests of our customers," said Jeremy Borseth, senior director of channel services and Internet operations for Churchill Downs, in a press release.

Replay videos will appear online approximately 10 to 15 minutes following the conclusion of a live race. A small "teaser" window on the home page of each Churchill Downs racetrack currently offering live racing will display the videos and offer links to higher-quality video available on a dedicated replay page.

Visitors may watch the most recent race available, scroll through the day's completed races to select another video, or view archival content. Races will be archived through the duration of the meet.

Video replays are currently being offered at www.calderracecourse.com for Calder Race Course and at www.hoosierpark.com for Hoosier Park, which both have race meets underway. The feature will debut for the remaining Churchill Downs tracks as they cycle back into live racing periods

World Championships? I think not

2006-09-21T20:57:00.000-04:00

Bloodhorse's interview with Barry Irwin reinforced the major problems with the Breeders Cup and this so called World Championships: It's designed to be anything but a world championship. First the quotes:

"Becrux is a no, mostly because I don't like paying supplements and we have no idea how he will handle a sand-based turf course,"

Team Valor's 4-year-old filly Irridescence, last year's South African champion 3-year-old filly who won the Audemars Piquet Queen Elizabeth II Cup (HK-I) earlier this year, is another that is ineligible for the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championship and is therefore unlikely to run, Irwin said.

"We can run her for more money in the Orient, where she has won, and she not only does not have to be supplemented, but her travel and ours is completely funded by the racing association," he noted.

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Basically the best horses right now in the world (with the exception of Berny) are not bred in the US and most likely need to be supplemented (I know Aragorn is already supplemented) and unless you're Coolmore or Godolphin, the numbers don't make sense to supplement. Then as Barry stated, add in expenses and it's really not worth it. So if you don't run in the BC, what's your option? Go to Japan and HK where they run for more money and all expesnes are covered with no supplement fees necessary.

It is unfortunate that the NTRA won't do anything about this situation because in the end, the NTRA is full of fools who are not in touch with the realities of the sport. Their stances on bettings exchanges is uninformed and ignorant (Note to NTRA: I Love Betfair and there's nothing you can do to stop me) and I really think the breeders are their #1 concern. Unlike in HK or England where racing is the primary focus, the breeders have way too much power here and is part of the cause of the downfall of the American Thoroughbred.

Add Sixties Icon to Arc Field

2006-09-19T22:03:00.000-04:00

I wish there were more trainers like Jeremey Noseda around, he had the guts to send Wilko to the BC Juvie a couple years ago, and now will send the St Leger winner, Sixties Icon, to the Arc after announcing he will be supplemented to the field. Unraced at two, he's from a pedigree that has indicated he'll stay all day with Galileo on top and Diesis as the dam-sire. 7th in the Derby in his 3rd career start, 2nd at Royal Ascot and has won his last two with Frankie Dettori on board, inlcuding that 3 lengths win in the St Leger where he was never asked for top gear. However he'll be another horse like Hurricane Run that will need a strongly run race. The Arc will depend all on if Fabre and the Aga Khan enter rabbits, if not, Rail Link and Shirocco look to be tough, however if there are rabbits, Hurricane Run, Pride and Sixties Icon look tough.

Market as of now on Betfair:
Hurricane Run 3-1
Deep Impact 3-1
Shirocco 7-2
Rail Link 9-1
Sir Percy 15-1
Pride 17-1
Sixities Icon 14-1

Woodbine Mile Replay w/Chicklets

2006-09-18T18:15:00.000-04:00

For those who couldn't watch the Mile or haven't seen the Trackus system, this is for you. Per Jen Morrison, Becrux got a 103 beyer which is really weak for this race and considering there isn't much better in terms of milers here in North America, the BC Mile could be an easy sweep for the Euros. (QEII this weekend I think, Liberttist aand George Washington are in I believe)

Sunday Roundup

2006-09-17T22:18:00.000-04:00

Canadian S- When my horse, Almerita broke dead last, I knew Ready's Gal was about 1-20 shot of winning the race. Perfectly ridden by Ramon, RG got a much easier lead then the 47 second half mile split indicated, with the about 9f distance (Woodbine can only run 9f races on turf with the rail in hte 2 lane I believe), I think that half mile split occured at less then 800m. Arravale was never happy racing uncovered and so close to the lead, but did fight on strongly at the end. The 10f EP Taylor might be better suited for her, especially with Irish St Leger winner, Kastoria, opting to skip the EP Taylor for the longer Canadian International.

Summer S- Well I said Dreaming of Anna shouldn't have been 6-1 in the ML and in hindshot, should have been even money, amazing performance, 135 for a two yr old was excellent, only 6 lengths slower then Becrux. The pace was kinda soft, but really, if it went 46.5, would the result have been any different? I highly doubt it.

Woodbine Mile-45 flat? Yikes, I honestly didn't think it would go that fast early, that pretty much did in the early speed like my horse, Ballast, Sweet Return and Remarkable News. And add in that nice long and wide Woodbine stretch, I should have know a closer was going to win. PVal again shows while he might be one of the best riders in American history, honestly, as much as the horse and race setup helped Becrux, I think PVal was worth a couple of lengths and gave this horse the right ride today. Prado was unlucky on Rebel Rebel, considering he's flopped at a tight track like Mth and excelled at gallop/wide tracks like Newmarket, Woodbine and Belmont, I don't think he'll be able to run his best in the BC, and I don't think Dutrow and HK's tough drug policy go together so I don't know what would be best for him next.

Woodbine Mile Selections

2006-09-16T12:47:00.000-04:00

G2 Canadian Stk- Arravale should have all those class bettors out on full force on her, thus will be overbet. Her Del Mar Oaks win wasn't all that good, Beyer used projection to come with that 98 (I gave 85) as 148 is a slow time on that course. Take The Bluff who was dq'ed from 2nd in the Oaks did come back to run 2nd last week in about a 100 rating on my scale so Arravale can go better. But at the short price, do you really want to?

I like the German, Almerita, I always love it when a Euro jock comes over with the Euro horse and Darryl Holland comes over just for this race. She should be on the pace with Ready's Gal and given this small field, it could be a stop-start type race so the deep closers like Arravale and Ambitious Cat will be in trouble. The timeforms come out to 97-100 on the Beyer scale which is competive at the least here and last time against older was up against good older males like Fight Club and Laverock.

G3 Summer Stk- Ignore the 6/1 morning line on Dreaming of Anne, when you have top beyer in the race, you'll never go off that high and if you do, the horse probably has a major issue. However the horse has every chance. This race comes down to the three favs, Marcavelly, Streets Ahead and Dreaming of Anne. IMO, if you can get 5-1 on any horse (mostly likely to be Streets Ahead) go ahead and pull the trigger. Otherwise, just watch the race, the longshots here aren't all that great.

G1 Woodbine Mile- While these horses might not have a shot against Bullish Luck or Liberttist, this is a great field, and a great betting race and most of these would be worthy of the G1 winner tag on their resume. Remarkable News ran a monster race in the Fourstardave and is worthy of that Beyer given, even with that slow 48+ half, he still ran 140 for the 8.5f. He won't get it that easy today, but he is flexible enough for it not to affect him.

However he's not getting my win money, I'm going for the price, Ballast (20-1) is only a length or so slower then RN on my ratings, an improving sort that has been getting better with every race. Kabel, the best turf rider in Canada, comes on and picks up the ride, and whenever he chooses a non-Sam Son horse over a Sam Son horse in a graded race (Shoal Water here), watch out, the horse is usually live, this angle cashed with Sky Conqueror in the Northern Dancer a couple of weeks ago.

Ad Valorem, the Queen Anne winner at Royal Ascot, is the question mark. Now we all know the 'legal', problems Kireon Fallon is in, but why Husbands, no Mick Kinane? no Jaime Spencer? That's a huge negative in my books. He ran up to the Godolphin superstar, Liberttist, in his last and ran evenly that day and last year was actually ahead of David Junior in the Sussex. The horses he defeated in the Queen Anne, Court Masterpiece and Proclimaiton, are also G1 winners. I honestly don't know what to do with him, I guess you can't support him at the short price, but don't ignore in the exotics.

Speaking of the exotics, my strategy is simple, use the ALL key! While the win line only looks to have a few chances, just about every horse in the race can sneak into the tri and super. You'll have to go deep and can't be cheap and box the favs and hope and pray.

Best of luck to all.

A Gamble on Yeats for the Cup

2006-09-15T18:31:00.000-04:00

Aussie bookmakers have now put Euro stayer Yeats, from the Aidan O Brien barn, favourite for this year's Melbourne Cup. With the great Makybe Diva now retired, the Cup is a wideopen affair this year and the Europeans have been hammering Yeats with the Aussie bookies over the last week. He has come down from15-1 to about 6-1. Winner of this year's Ascot Gold Cup, Yeats is the 4/9 fav for tomorrow's Irish Gold Cup.

There have been some famous Aussie ante-post gambles that have come through in the last couple of years (supposedly there was a person who successful bet $1 Mil on Lonhro in his final couple of wins), the British on the other hand is more hit and miss. This year, an unraced 3yr old full bro to Islington trained by Sir Michael Stoute saw a big move all of a sudden and I still don't think he's won a race yet and usually the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Grand National is immediately put as a 2-1 fav to repeat and there are always many takers for this stupid bet.

Here's the link to the full story and make sure to check our SportingLife or RacingPost tomorrow night to see if Yeats at least won the Irish Gold Cup and a plane ticket to Australia.

Saturday Edit-Well Yeats went off as the 2/7 fav and....lost! Kastoria, the filly ridden by Mick Kinane got up in the final yards to take out the big fav. I wonder what those bettors who have plunged on Yeats for the Cup are thinking about right now.

GPS Tracking Coming to Woodbine

2006-09-12T21:32:00.000-04:00

Trakus, a Boston based company, is bring horse race tracking to Woodbine starting tomorrow, they promise to be able to provide accurate position of all horses in the race using a chip in the saddlecloth, similar to Turftrax in England and Stride in HK.

Some quotes from the press release from Woodbine and SC:
"Improved television coverage is the immediate benefit for customers, but soon visitors to Woodbine's website will be able watch virtual reenactments of the races, putting them in saddle of the winning horse or anywhere else on the track."

"The data collected on each horse can be used instantly for television displays or archived to the Web or print for later use by handicappers."

"The new simulcasting signal will have the live race video in one split-screen, and the digitally-created image of the field in the second."

See this link for a example.

Weekend Roundup + Woodbine Mile early Field

2006-09-12T21:01:00.000-04:00

Okay, lets do a wrap up from Belmont this past weekend:

Garden City-Magnificent Song 103 - As you might have been reading, I guess the Belmont turf course has had troubles absorbing the large amounts of rain the course saw just before las weekend, and eventhough the course was labelled good, it played much more softer. At first glance at the time, I thought it was average, but after the variant adjustment, it's actually really good. And if Gomez started a little earlier on MS, she probably could have won by another length or two. 36 second final fraction, and this horse is still a young, she has some devolping to go I think. Could be one to watch next year.
BTW Anyone notice the breeder of MS? ClassicStar...kinda ironic giving their frontpage headlines yesterday eh?

Man O War- Cacique 106 - Even with the variant adjustment, the pace of this race was slow, the 12f horses like Go Deputy and Relaxed Gesture got screwed, the 10f Cacique had an easy G1 at the taking and he took full advantage of it. In the post race comments, you can already see Frankel not wanting to commit to the BC Turf for Cacique, a very smart move, at an honest 12f, Cacique would run up the track. And I would give Go Deputy another shot at this level.

Gazelle- Pine Island 97 & Ruffian- Pool Land 104 : I combined these as both have BC Distaff implications. For Pine Island, I gave 100 for her Alabama win so a slight regression for her. Pool Land was really impressive, with the small field in the Ruffian, Take D Tour was a surprisingly quick early pace and Pool Land still came home strong and looked good doing it. Now think of the BC Distaff, Teammate and Take D Tour freewheeling out front early, Pool Land just behind them and Pine Island charging out of the clouds late. Really going to be a much better race then it looked like a couple of months ago.

Now as for this weekend's big race, here's an early look at the field for the G1 Woodbine Mile this Sunday. Off the top of my head, I gave Remarkable News a 106 for his Fourstardave win, Becrux got a 95 last time out, the rest I have to look up.

Candidates

Woodbine Mile
Purse: $1 million; 1 mile, turf; Grade 1

HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY
Ad Valorem A. O'Brien P. Husbands
Awesome Action S. Leslie No rider
Ballast G. Motion T. Kabel
Becrux N. Drysdale C. Nakatani
Captain Kurt M. Conlon E. Wilson
Dalavin A. Cappuccitti C. Montpellier
Diamond Green R. Frankel No rider
Rebel Rebel R. Dutrow E. Prado
Remarkable News A. Penna Jr. J. Castellano
Shoal Water M. Frostad R. Landry
Sweet Return R. McAnally K. Desormeaux
Therecomesatiger T. Proctor M. Guidry
Three Valleys R. Frankel R. Dominguez
Vanderlin A. Balding R. Hughes

Shirocco defeats Hurricane Run in Arc Prep

2006-09-10T11:25:00.000-04:00

Another blanket photo in France and this time it was Shirocco just getting the nod over Hurricane Run with Pride not far back. Shirocco was allowed to set a slow pace early and sprinted away for the win. Hurricane Run needs an honest pace, he doesn't have push button speed, all his losses have been when the pace went against him (this year today and in his 06 debut against Pride and last year in the French Derby where Frankie stole the race also from the front). The large Arc field usually ensure a good pace so maybe Fallon is right and might be able to turn the tables on Shirocco.

Then add the fact Japanese superstar Deep Impact will be in the field, it's going to be a great Arc again this year.

Story at RacingPost

Electrocutionist Follow-Up

2006-09-09T20:16:00.000-04:00

From Godolphin.com:

Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said: "Earlier in the week, we detected an abnormality in Electrocutionist's heart. He was admitted to the veterinary hospital for tests and further investigations. He appeared to be responding well to treatment, but during the night he suffered what seems to have been a fatal heart attack.

"It is terribly sad. He was a great horse for Godolphin and a real stable favourite. He will be sorely missed by all of us."

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor also paid tribute to Electrocutionist, saying: "He was a wonderful, brave horse, a real pleasure to train. He gave his best every time he ran and I will always remember the courage and class he showed in winning the Dubai World Cup. He was a champion."

Frankie Dettori said: "Electrocutionist's World Cup win was a really fantastic performance. It is desperately sad that we have lost him, because he was one of those horses who always seemed to relish a battle. It is a terrible blow for the whole team."

Such a tragic loss so close to the Breeders Cup, ironic it's his heart that failed him here where it brought him to glorious victory in Dubai and in last year's Juddmonte International.

Saturday Stakes Roundup

2006-09-09T20:00:00.000-04:00

Irish Champion S: I said originally that Fallon was with Ace, sorry, it was Dylan Thomas, and it explained the massive gamble on this horse, every time I checked with betfair over the last 24 hours, this horse was shorter and shorter in the market, I think he went from about 4-1 to 7/4 favourite at the off. The pace was suprising strong, Kinane let Ace roll early, Dylan Thomas was just behind, and Ouija Board behind him. At the top of the stretch, Ouija got the lead, but Dylan Thomas kept on fighing all the way and eventually got back past Ouija Board for the win. Alexander Goldrun 3rd, and my horse Mustameet ran a non threating 4th. I'm not so sure this will be a key race down the line, I'll wait for Mordin's time analysis of the race, I just think this race didn't suit anyone and noone really dominated the race, OB really isn't a 10f horse.

Garden City S: At the eight pole, I was thinking I was going to hit a good sized exactor with Take The Ribbon going to the lead and Jade Queen chasing in second, then boom, you see Gomez come flying down the center of the course on Maginficant Song to swoop them all and all I had on her was a saver in the P3, doh!. I had a good feeling Take The Ribbon would improve, I gave the Del Mar Oaks a terrible rating, but the switch to a longer, wider turf course suited her style.

Gazelle S: Everything I said on Teammate was wrong I guess, she ran another monster race and actually pulled away for the rest of the field in the stretch.....except for Pine Island again. Around the turn, I thought she was too far back to win, but she just kept coming to Teammate and got her late. Pine Island will be a worthy favourite on BC day, but I think Teammate could be the ignoring one, especially if Pine Island gets caught in traffic, she plays a very dangerous game, always waiting till the last second to get up, going to eventually catch up to her.

Man O War: Another mistake here on my part, I thought it was 12f, it was actually 11f and considering the suprising slow pace, it played more like a 10f race and that suited the push button speed of Cacique perfectly. Go Deputy needs a honest 12f to go best, he'll be outclassed in the BC Turf, however the Canadian International is a much softer spot and probably the best race next for him. Cacique should look at the Hong Kong Cup has a long range goal. Showing Up I guess isn't as good as I thought he was, however all credit to the connections for running him against older, first 3yr old to place in an open G1 this year.

DWC Winner Electrocutionist dead

2006-09-09T09:17:00.000-04:00

Total shock around in Europe this morning with Godolphin releasing the following statement about this year's impressive Dubai World Cup winner and BC Classic hopeful Electrocutionist.

"Electrocutionist has sadly died following a suspected heart attack. He died this morning after suffering what is thought to have been a heart attack."

See RacingPost and Godolphin for futher updates.

Belmont Saturday

2006-09-09T08:54:00.000-04:00

A great saturday card at Belmont, 3 good graded stakes races, although 1 isn't a good betting race.

Race 7 Garden City- This has blanket finish written all over it, lots of horses with good chances, I'm leading to Jade Queen, should be in the 2nd flight, has shown a very good late kick. Take The Ribbon gets Julian back on and the Belmont turf course should suit her style of racing much better then Del Mar where speed rules. Came home in sub 24 two starts ago at CD.

Race 8 Gazelle - It's Pine Island's world and we're just living in it, she'll be the 3 yr old filly at the champ, and stating a pretty good case for the BC Distaff. Teammate don't get suckered in, don't think the one turn will suit her, might be overbet in the exotics.

Race 9 Man O War - Not a great G1 quality field like the MoW's of the past, but considering the current state of North American turf races, it's probably the best we can do. Everyone is going to be discounting Go Deputy, but I don't think you can, when I was doing my ratings, I think I had to triple check cause I couldn't believe I gave it a 107, but it looks legit. Showing Up has a 106 last out from me and should be the controlling speed again, however will he get the 12f? Not so sure. Cacique will be upthere, but I'm not convinced on him anymore, Relaxed Geasture is doing a rain dance, if he gets the soft course, watch out.

Good luck today.

Ouija v Alexander in Ireland Saturday

2006-09-08T21:21:00.000-04:00

Tomorrow is the Irish Champion S and it was expected to be a dual between Hurricane Run and Ouija Board, however Fabre has stayed in France with Hurricane Run looking for soft ground. So the headlines read Ouija Board v Alexander Goldrun, a rematch of the dual they had in the Nassau where Ouija won by the slimmest of margins. Plenty of news is also paid on Dylan Thomas, the Irish Derby winner, looking to make amends of his flop last time out, and hey, last two Champion winners were 3 yr old. And of course in Ireland, you always got to think O'Brien and Fallon, this time with the loveable plodder Ace.

There's a fifth horse racing tomorrow.....not many people talking about him.....and he's the one I like. Mustameet hasn't run in any G1's, he even hasn't left Ireland this year, but the way he's devolped this year makes him hard to ignore. 7 races this year, 2 losses on soft turf, 5 wins on firm turf, and he's run the ratings to make him a player here. With the lack of speed in the race, it'll play like a 9 furlong race which suits Mustameet more then say Ouija who probably wants longer. Twice this year, he's beat Chelsea Rose, another improving filly who has been ahead of Alexander Goldrun this year and a couple back of Ouija in the Nassau.

Ouija Board is a great horse, Alexender Goldrun is the 10f specailist, but at 8 or 9-1, it's tough to ignore Mustameet and worth the flutter IMO.

One last Spa recap

2006-09-06T23:17:00.000-04:00

Last year, Honey Ryder used the Glen Falls to spring board to a big win in the EP Taylor, this year, Nobla Stella and Latice look primed to score a big fall win in either the EP Taylor or BC FM Turf. I scored the race a 105 , a very good figure. I think they key is that both of these are mudlarks, Noble Stella has only ran bad recently on firmer/harder turf courses at Mth and GP, the softer turf courses like Woodbine, Saratoga and Belmont were to her liking and most German pedigrees always take to soft turf (See Shirocco comment below). If either were to go to the BC, and catch a soft turf, I think they could be bombs waiting to explode, cause all the money will go on either Gorilla (lots of hype, but not clear of pack ratings), Ouija Board (who I don't think likes soft turf) or Alexandrova (hyped O'Brian filly that has yet to face a big challenge, but has lots of potential I admit) and neither of those 3 are money in the bank singles.

BTW I gave the Hopeful a 99 , not great considering some two years have won in the 103 range, so in the Champagne, the class players will be out on Circular Quay...I would be more then happy, if Tiz Wonderful were to make, to go against CQ. However in CQ's defense, the race was much better then the Del Mar Futurity, nothing good will come from that race and should be an easy toss on BC day.

A Website Every Handicapper Must Bookmark

2006-09-05T23:16:00.000-04:00

I know many people who hate BC day for one reason, they can't read that freaking strange Euro formlines.....a website that I love to check every once in a while is Nick Mordin's website . Nick Mordin is the Andy Beyer of Europe and has introduced the concept of speed ratings to the masses there through his book Betting For A Living (which I was lucky to pick up at Amazon). And while the calculations are different, the mechanics are the same despite the major differences in race tracks between here and Europe. His speed ratings are pretty good and he profiles most of the major G1 horses in Europe so all the major races are reviewed and broken down for the people.

But that alone isn't why I love the site, Nick does what 99% of Beyer followers in North America don't do, he ALWAYS takes into the account the context of how the figure was earned, in North America, tracks are uniform, but in Europe, every track is different (left or right handed, long or short stretch, flat or down hill, sharp or sweeping turns) and tries to profile horses to find what they prefer.

A simple example was last year's BC Turf, Azamour was favoured, and I was always a huge fan of him, looked ultra impressive winning the King George last year...however I was allover Shirocoo, why? Shirocco was a confirmed mudlark, Ace was a plodder and Azamour who was 5 for 7 on firm turf, was something like 1 for 10 on soft turf and Bago and a similar preference for firm turf. People who were looking at the timeforms alone were betting Azamour, people who took into account the context of the ratings would have been on Shirocco

Those Dubai boys at it again

2006-09-03T13:35:00.000-04:00

Godolphin continued their amazing run of success for the Dubai owners when winning today's Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp, a key stepping stone for the BC Mile, with Librettist. Horse is now 7 for 8, with his only loss coming two years ago as a two year old in the Dewhurst behind Shamardal and Oratorio (two Euro champs), plus was 16 lengths ahead that day of Etaala who was in action at the Spa last weekend. As for the BC Mile, it'll be a wait and see, looks like the QEII is next, but if he comes over, watch out. This horse seems to excel on firm or fast, likes to race on the lead, but can rate like he did last time in the Prix Marios and the overall BC Mile scene is really weak this year. Aragorn and Ashkal Way (another Godolphin horse) are nice horses but not International G1 type. Court Masterpiece is the best in England, but he was an average G2 in the past couple of years when there were good Euro milers around and just the best now since everyone else is retired.

With Proclimation also waiting in the wings, the boys in blue should be favoured to take home the majority of the BC Mile purse.

Read more at the RacingPost or SportingLife.

Saturday Roundup

2006-09-02T20:56:00.000-04:00

First, about my selections today, yea I bombed, couldn't catch a freaking break today. Oh well, that's racing I guess. I had already planned not to play tomorrow so I'll have time to regroup for labour day.

Now on to the stakes action:
The Forego-This race was turned upside down when Commentator missed the break, would have put more pressure on the race, but nevertheless, this horse has yet to win when not going the lead and with the speedy types that were in here, I can't believe how much was bet on him. Nightmare Affair had no hope, they could have gone 43 seconds for the half, it wouldn't matter, nothing was coming from way out of it, speed and the rail ruled the day. War Front took his shot in the stretch, but the horse for course, Pomery, just seems to think he's Secretariat there and just wouldn't give it in. In the end, I don't think this race will have huge BC implications, however it will help the price on War Front, I ain't giving up on him yet.
Edit:I gave this a 108, it didn't look fast and I think a lot of the others didn't take to the track, War Front ran a 110 last time and looks to regressed to a 104 here

The Woodward-My pick Suave, just had a horrible trip, missed break, rushed (saw the whip used) to get close, but was going so fast, it ran on to heels and had to check hard then faded to last slowly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have come back reported lame tomorrow. Now, does Richard Migliore read the DRF? Obviously not, the last couple times Funny Cide has won, he did it from the front, so why did he not send him? Especially with the way the track was playing, this horse seems to run best with the sound of hooves behind him, not beside him. All credit to Sun King, never gave up, but like what happened in the Albert The Great, when the track is against you, there isn't much you can do, Premium Tap was again able to catch a track for him, a much different track then it was for the Whitney (hmmm, in hindsight, how the hell did he then go off at 30-1?). Something to watch in the next for Premium Tap, I just feel like he might now like the rail or being trapped inside of horses, small fields or outside of horses could be what he likes.
Edit:I gave this a 105 rating, again, not great, Invasor/Sun King was a 110, I think Sun King here (104) ended up spinning his wheels in the slow/deep track.

Edit:Other Spa Ratings- Diamond Stripes 103 (looked just as good as the Woodward), Unaffected 104 (he was bet down for a reason, but didn't see this coming, liked the wet track?), Tiz Wonderful 100 (I more and more think Tiznow is going to be a win-early sire, and with Hennessy on the bottom, I should have expected more from this firster)

El Cajon-Now while some horses have been able to win from outside or sitting behind the speed at the Spa today, I think every dirt winner at Del Mar was riding the rail on the lead, so Corey went all out to make sure he got that spot early. It was a really fast pace and they walked home, but with the exception of the outclassed Mr Katz, noone had shown the ability to close, even Brother Derek is best on the lead so that was another thing in favour of Corey. In the end, these horses better stay out west, cause the east coast 3yr olds are much better.

Palomar BC Handicap-Great ride by Baze, made sure he got the lead on Mea Domina and while I thought she was going to give it up after a quick half mile, she fought hard again. Nice run by Three Degrees, very unlucky not to get up in time. I would be tempted again to send her east to the QEII or EP Taylor, turf courses will suit her more then what she finds out west. I'm reserving comment on my pick, Polyfirst, waiting for the replay at calracing.com, I want to see what happen coming just out of the chute, I think she was spooked by something and became very rank thereafter and she was basically done right there and then.

Durkin out, Denman in as BC Caller

2006-09-02T16:04:00.000-04:00

Hot off the wire at the bloodhorse, Tom Durkin is out as the BC announcer due to an exclusive agreement he has with NBC to call the Derby and Preakness (remember, BC is on ESPN this year). Rumor is Trevor Denman will be the replacement (he's done color commentary on some of the past BC's so it makes a little sense), as long as it's not Dave Johnson, I think I can live with this.

Read more at the Bloodhorse.

Saturday Picks and Thoughts

2006-09-02T00:30:00.000-04:00

Lots of value around at Saratoga and Del Mar Saturday, hit one or two winners and maybe get a P3 in there and you just might be eating lobster for dinner.

Saratoga (odds in brackets is my betting line)
R1-King Hoss (3/2) goes turf to dirt, should stay all day. Bird Mountain (3/1) will be a very good price with the no name connections and could just escape early.
R2-Righteous (9/5) is much better then the beyer indicates, extra distance is good, Leparoux and Zito are very good to have at the Spa. Probably will play this one on the exchange to get a better price since there is no coupling on Betfair.
R5-Abraaj (2/1)-Carson City first timer is always a playable angle, average works which might be better has a lot of horses here have flashed speed, might be able to relax. Trainer and jockey stats are excellent.
R8-Nightmare Affair/War Front (3/1)-Stuck between these two, I think there is a lot of speed here and over 7f, I think the closers will be flying late. Commentator has never really ran a extreme fast early split before, his energy distrubution never made him look like a sprinter and until he can prove he can relax, you can't support him at these low odds. I'm leaning to War Front, he'll be closer of the two I like and will get first run on Nightmare Affair.
R9-Suave/Sun King (2-1)-Another tough race to cap, not much needed on Sun King, 110 rating from me when just missing against Invasor, however never a fan of his deep closing style, at least the pace is there for it. Suave will get first run and over two turns (excluding the GP Hdc) usually averages a 105 beyer, well that gives him everyshot here and will be the value. I see Funny Cide and Wandering Boy hooking up early for some really quick splits

Del Mar
R3-Brite Red State (9/5) Already the best horse in the race, goes first time Mullins? If Aaron can get him a length or two closer early, race will be over at the top of the stretch
R4-Brother Derek (1/2)-Watch the race, don't bother trying to make money here, you can't.
R5-Foward Commitment (2/1)-12/1 ML? Don't think that will last long, while the pedigree wans more distance, it's a very classy pedigree, works have been solid (not flashy, but that's okay for me), trainer stats are amazing, especially with firsters. I don't like the morning fav, Edwardian, looks like a quitter here, had two tries and can't last, looks like he needs to be dropped into MC to win a race.
R6-Smooth Sis (5/2)-Had no chance when Special Heather got a soft 48 early, today I see a 47 setup so SH will be overbet and have a lot more horses around her early, Smooth Sis is the best closer in the race and the form cycle players will notice that it's 3rd time off the layoff. Good enough for me.
R7-Smoking Anne (3/1)-15/1 ML here as well, but why? 150K purchase, by a win early sire in Smoke Glacken, trainer hits 20% with 2yr olds, sub 48 gate work as a prep. I like the morning line fav, Realandspectacular, but I don't see much a difference between the two. Give me the value.
R8-Polyfirst (5/2)-Lots of speed here again and while the class players will be on Shining Energy (with good reason I admit), I think Polyfirst is the better horse, sub 30 final fraction is ultra impressive. She can sit off the speed and yet get first run on the late runners, very good style for Del Mar.

TBA? What's the TBA

2006-08-31T18:37:00.000-04:00

As you can now see on the left, I've joined up with the Thorougbred Bloggers Alliance. I think the TBA is a great ideal to help bring our sport into the 21st century, I've always complained that the people at the helm at most tracks are 60 yr old something who are stuck in 1970 where racing could easily charge 17% on each bet because they were the only game in town and refuse to believe now that anything has changed.

As for the standings, it's based on graded stakes performances and I think it's a great ideal, takes a lot of hype out of it, however I wish they would add a requirement to make sure that the winner validates the win with a performance near par to the level. Example: Zippy Chippy and 10 of his clones run in the BC Classic, and Zippy Chippy #1 wins the Classic in 2:20 at Churchill, his Beyer speed rating and my homemade beyer would be much closer to -0 then 100, but yet he is still credited with a G1 win. In most recent history, Lost In The Fog was a good example, I thought he always caught weak fields and ran weak races that were usually a slow-average paceshape. It's tough to find a horse he beat that came back to do anything decent (The Daddy won the G2 Super Derby, but that was a patheic field as well). On the flipside, I gave Discreet Cat a 116 rating for his allowance win, about 2 lengths better than Henny Hughes. If those two were to meet in a match race, the class players would be allout on the G1 winner, Henny, and I would be laughing after the race while walking to the windows to cash my Discreet Cat tickets.

A Great Night for Polytrack

2006-08-30T23:29:00.000-04:00

Well the first card of the polytrack era at Woodbine has come and gone and I think we saw tonight what polytrack has to offer, good racing, fair tracks, and longshots. The track played really fair, saw a longshot go wire to wire and a couple horses come from nowhere to win, both in a sprint and routes. I think the workout tab is going to be very important to watch, the last race winner had a 35 second bullet workout on the poly and won at 18-1?? I'm still kicking myself for missing that. And the winner of the first race ran a 100 according to my ratings (I'm using the old dirt pars as a guide, I know it's dumb, but as a general guide to general performance, it might hold up) so she obviously loved the polytrack. I didn't see many turf pedigree's doing well, but (especially over routes) you need a pedigree of lasting the distance (turf pedigrees are generally mile plus pedigress), you won't see 6 or 7f speedsters lasting over a route of distance (sorry Lava Man, avoid polytrack at all costs).

For more on the first day, check out here.

Over at Del Mar today, the feature 2yr old stakes race (won by Prenupital) was plain ugly, these two years old staggered home to a 50 rating. I think any of these horses should be a play against next time out, especially if bet down. Longshot Cost of Freedom scored the best rating of the day (85.5) winning at huge odds in the 2nd.

Saratoga was a pain today, with the changing track conditions and races coming off the turf, I ended up ignoring the off-turf races and used the main track scheduled races for my variant. The two year stakes here race was ugly also, I would put that bunch of two years olds back on grass asap. No standout performances today in the end.

First Posting...some thoughts, some numbers

2006-08-28T23:10:00.000-04:00

So this is my first post, and what a good weekend to start, so lets go over the races with my own speed ratings and comments about them.
T.H. Approval 106-Never been a fan of him, but can run the time. Maybe best of the North Americans
Featherbed (Sar Aug27 R5) 97-Wow, wonder what happened today, tiring track didn't slow her down.
Pleasant Hill (Sar Aug27th R7) 100-Another nice 2 yr old, don't forget about the 2nd place horse Maizelle, might be able to pick off PH over 7f or a mile.
Dubai Escapade 114-Damn, what a run, and looked great doing it, 6f is probably too short, so where do you go next with her?
Aragorn 105.5-Beating up on weak horses out west, he's fast, but not the great horse like the media is playing him to be so far.
High Finance 111-Guess the Belmont was a flop, Jerome Mile or Cigar Mile looks like a good spot.
Ashkal Way 105-Ran a couple lengths better today, so how good is Remarkable News?
Henny Hughes 111-Always thought he was a sprinter, looks like a good play in the BC right now
Bernardini 110-He's very good, no doubt, however he's on par with Invasor..going to be one hell of a JCGC in a couple of weeks.